Market Insight
SPRING 2017

Annual report
Year 2017

The Market Insight Fall 2017 report is not yet available and will be published in November 2017
The Market Insight Winter 2017-2018 report is not yet available and will be published in February 2018

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TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT
IN EUROPE

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS - RHINE COUNTRY MAINLY WITH GOODS TRANSPORT ACTIVITY

(2010 = 100)

Source : CBS

  • In a quarterly year-on-year comparison, inland shipping turnover in the Netherlands decreased by 12% in Q3 2016. In comparison, turnover in maritime shipping fell by 8.5%, and the turnover in the whole transport sector decreased by 1.5%.
  • Compared to both waterborne transport modes, the Dutch land transport sector increased its turnover: road transport by 2.8% and rail transport by 3.5% (source: CBS).
  • Although the intensity of the sharp drop in turnover in IWT is mainly a result of the exceptionally high levels of the previous year (in Q3 2015, prices and turnover were boosted by low water levels), the data reveal some further observations: turnover in IWT in Q3 2016 was about 5% lower than the average for the time period from 2005 to 2016, if we only look at the 3rd quarters of those years.

 

+1,2%   COMPARED TO Q2 2016, TURNOVER IN THE DUTCH IWT SECTOR  SAW A SMALL INCREASE OF 1.2% IN Q3 2016, WHICH IS IN LINE  WITH USUAL SEASONAL PEAKS REACHED IN GOODS TRANSPORT  IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE YEAR.

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN HUNGARY DANUBE COUNTRY MAINLY WITH GOODS TRANSPORT ACTIVITY

(2010=100)

Source : CBS

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRIA – DANUBE COUNTRY MAINLY WITH PASSENGER TRANSPORT ACTIVITY

(2010=100)

Source : Statistik Austria

  • In Austria, where the passenger transport share of IWT turnover accounts for 2/3 of the total, while the goods transport share is only 1/3, turnover increased in Q3 2016 by 15% compared to Q2 2016, which was mainly due to seasonal effects, as the 3rd quarter is – in passenger shipping – by far the quarter with the highest turnover of the whole year.
  • Compared to Q3 2015, turnover declined by 14%. This decline is explained by the extreme low water period in 2015 which had boosted prices and turnover. Even a small increase in the number of passengers transported on the upper Danube in 2016 could not prevent the turnover from going down (Source: Danube Commission).
  • Hungary is a Danube country where, in contrast to Austria, goods transport has a higher share in IWT turnover (almost 3/4) than passenger transport (about 1/4).
  • Turnover in the Hungarian inland shipping industry was on the rise during the year 2016, but this was mainly due to the usual seasonal variations in goods transport. Nevertheless, Q3 2016 saw an increase in turnover in Hungary by 9% compared to Q3 2015.

 

2/3    PASSENGER TRANSPORT SHARE OF IWT TOTAL TURNOVER IN AUSTRIA.

FREIGHT RATES

DEVELOPMENT OF FREIGHT RATES IN THE NETHERLANDS

(MOYENNE 2015 = 100)

Source : CBS - Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek

  • The average transport prices in goods transport in the Netherlands (average of dry cargo, liquid cargo and containers) in Q3 2016 were far below the level of Q3 2015 (-17.5%). Compared to one quarter earlier (Q2 2016), transport prices in Q3 2016 were slightly higher (+2.6%).
  • In tanker shipping (liquid cargo transport), freight rates in Q3 2016 were, as for the average of the three segments, slightly higher (+2%) than in Q2 2016.
  • Compared to Q3 2015, tanker shipping freight rates were about 50% lower (see also figure p.38). Freight rates moved up further in Q4 2016, hand in hand with very low water levels at the end of 2016.
  • The vessels’ loading degrees were reduced, so more vessels had to be put into service, and fleet capacities were fully used. This increased operating costs as more vessels had to be scheduled.

DEVELOPMENT OF FREIGHT RATES IN THE DANUBE REGION

(JANUARY 2015 = 100)

Source : Danube Commission

  • On the Danube, freight rates are above all determined by bunker fuel costs. These bunker fuel costs were on a strong upward trend in 2016. According to the Danube Commission, freight rates increased sharply in the course of 2016 (freight rates based on transport of grain and chemical products from Middle Danube inland ports).

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREES AT KAUB/ MIDDLE RHINE FOR VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 2.5 AND 3 METRES, COMPARED WITH FREIGHT RATES INDEX

Source : CCNR and PJK International

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREES AT KAUB/ MIDDLE RHINE FOR VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 2.5 AND 3 METRES, COMPARED WITH FREIGHT RATES INDEX

Source : CCNR and PJK International

  • According to surveys conducted by the German Federal Office of Goods Transport, it can be noticed that the reactivation of vessels during low water periods increases the operational fleet and the supply side of the market on a permanent basis. The reason is that many reactivated vessels are not taken out of the market when water levels recover. This puts more pressure on transport prices after the low water period.
  • Further pressure on prices stems from ongoing market consolidation: the concentration of freight forwarding companies to bigger companies enables them to decrease operational unit cost and thus put pressure on prices. Although this consolidation is beneficial for the market integration of IWT, it can create difficulties for the profitability and the business models of smaller companies.

Market Insight
SPRING 2017

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WINTER 2017-2018

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