Market Insight
SPRING 2017

Annual report
Year 2017

Market Insight
FALL 2017

The Market Insight Winter 2017-2018 report is not yet available and will be published in February 2018

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General economic conditions in Europe

 

 

GDP Evolution in the Eurozone - Past evolution and outlook (Gdp in billion euros)

Source : Oxford Economics

 

 

 

  • Since 2013, GDP evolution in the Eurozone is characterized by a rather limited but stable growth trend with a yearly GDP growth between 1% and 2%. It is assumed that this evolution will continue until 2020. Deviations from this growth trend would arise in the case of major financial crises in the Eurozone.
  • 1.7% GDP growth in the Eurozone in 2016

 

 

Industrial Production and World Trade in the Eurozone - Past evolution and outlook (index)

Source : Oxford Economics

 

 

  • World Trade is progressing with a higher growth rate than industrial production in the Eurozone. And this trend is expected to proceed further in the near future. Between 2016 and 2020, the expected annual growth rate is 1.4% for industrial production and 4.0% for world trade.    European world trade will indeed benefit from worldwide growth, and this rather positive economic outlook should have a positive impact on the transport industry as a whole.
  • As world trade is mainly transported by maritime traffic, rising trade figures have a positive impact on maritime container traffic, and therefore also container traffic on inland waterways – especially in the hinterland of big seaports.

 

 

Evolution of exports from the European Union countries (intra-EU and extra-EU trade-Index 100 in 2010)

Source : Eurostat

 

  • Exports from EU countries towards Extra-EU destinations experienced significant growth during the second semester of 2016. This growth was promoted by a recovery of commodity prices, which enabled developing countries to import more goods from Europe. Still, since the beginning of 2017, exports towards extra-EU countries have decreased, remaining nonetheless higher than one year ago, at the beginning of 2016.
  • The growth of exports from EU countries to EU countries increased as well in 2016. Even though the growth was more limited, intra-EU exports increased by 2.5% in 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

Economic conditions of IWT-related sectors

 

 

Coal, Gas and Oil domestic demand evolution in the European Union - Past evolution and outlook (Yearly domestic demand in MTOE Tonne Equivalent Oil)

Source : Oxford Economics

 

 

  • The demand for coal is expected to go down in Europe, due to the phasing out of coal fired power plants and the political aim of increasing the share of renewable energy production.
  • The demand for oil should rather stagnate or decrease very slightly until 2025, as a substitution for mineral oil-based fuels in the transport sector is not realistic until 2025, even though this is expected in the long-term.
  • Gas consumption should however increase slightly over the next years, benefitting from an energy shift from coal and oil towards gas and renewables. Focusing only on coal, gas and oil, the share of gas consumption is indeed expected to increase from 32% in 2015 to 35% in 2025.

 

 

EU gross output of activities contributing to inland waterways goods transport (EU gross output in billion real US$)

Source : Oxford Economics, CCNR analysis

 

 

  • The construction sector is assumed to expand its activity in Europe, fostered by important trends like urbanisation, strong demographic growth in certain regions and cities, and immigration.
  • For metals and metal products, limited growth is foreseen. Steel is needed in the construction sector, but also in other branches of the economy where growth prospects are less optimistic. And in contrast to the construction sector, the steel demand can be met by a worldwide supply that will impact growth prospects in the European Union.
  • Agricultural products are promoted by important trends, such as the greening of the energy sector, which increases the demand for biomass, and should therefore maintain a significant share of IWT in the long-term even though conjectural negative impacts can occur due to bad harvests, for example.

Annual report
Year 2017

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Market Insight
WINTER 2017-2018

A project co-financed byEuropean Commission

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