Market Insight
SPRING 2017

Annual report
Year 2017

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FALL 2017

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6. Capacity Monitoring

Dry cargo vessels

 

 

  • In 2016, the average utilisation rate of the dry cargo fleet dropped slightly compared to 2015. In the corresponding graph and table, the evolution of the demand/supply ratio in inland navigation is plotted for the different fleet segments. It should be noted that the average fleet utilisation rates dropped overall, and in particular for the vessel size classes 1000-2000 t (84 % → 82 %) and > 2000 t (80 % → 77 %). Only for the small vessels (size class < 1000 t) was there an increase (82 % → 85 %).
  • The major reasons for the overall decline are, on the one hand, low growth rates for classical dry cargo segments (fewer agricultural products due to a bad harvest, closure of coal-fired power plants) and, on the other hand, better water conditions as compared to 2015. Vessels smaller than 1000 tonnes are taken off the market to a larger extent than the reduction of the freight volumes.

 

 

Utilisation rate of the dry cargo fleet according to fleet segments (in %)

Source : Panteia

 

 

  • Although the dry cargo fleet shows a structural recovery from the crisis, fleet utilisation levels did not reach the values of 2007 and 2008. A decrease in freight volumes in the agricultural sector, especially in France, has led to lower transport demand and therefore hampers the recovery of the inland navigation market. Energy transition has reduced the demand for coal transport.
  • These developments still show indications of overcapacity in the dry cargo fleet.
  • It should be noted that the fragmented structure in the inland navigation market hampers regulation of capacity.

 

 

Comparison between needed and available fleet capacity in the dry cargo market

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Needed tonnage
Less than 1000 tonnes 1,98 1,86 1,72 1,69 1,83 1,65 1,60 1,51 1,49 1,47
1000 – 2000 tonnes 2,73 2,67 2,37 2,36 2,48 2,29 2,34 2,39 2,44 2,38
More than 2000 tonnes 3,93 4,11 3,38 3,72 4,02 3,71 3,96 3,93 4,37 4,16
TOTAL 8,64 8,63 7,47 7,77 8,33 7,65 7,89 7,83 8,31 8,01
Available tonnage
Less than 1000 tonnes 2,24 2,18 2,14 2,09 2,07 2,02 1,92 1,85 1,81 1,73
1000-2000 tonnes 2,92 2,95 3,01 2,96 2,93 2,91 2,97 2,92 2,90 2,89
More than 2000 tonnes 4,27 4,40 5,03 5,19 5,23 5,24 5,40 5,39 5,44 5,39
TOTAL 9,42 9,52 10,18 10,24 10,23 10,17 10,29 10,17 10,14 10,02
Average utilisation rate 92% 91% 73% 76% 81% 75% 77% 77% 82% 80%

Source : Panteia

 

 

 

 

Liquid cargo vessels

 

 

  • In 2016, the average utilisation rate of the liquid cargo fleet dropped on average by 1% down to 61%. The main reason was the better water conditions in the autumn of 2016. The largest tankers in the fleet were mostly affected by the better water conditions, as these vessels have the largest draft – both when empty and laden. This fleet segment (> 2000 tonnes) has by far the highest share of the total liquid cargo and therefore this affected the overall result.

 

 

Utilisation rate of the liquid cargo fleet according to fleet segments (in %)

Source : Panteia

 

 

  • Due to the obligation to carry nearly all kind of liquid commodities in double hull vessels from 2019 onwards, a large number of single-hull tankers have been scrapped lately. This has mostly affected the tankers that are smaller than 2000 tonnes. Thus, a large increase in capacity utilisation can be noticed for tankers with a loading capacity of less than 1000 tonnes. In this segment, nearly no new vessels have entered the market.
  • For vessels with a cargo carrying capacity between 1000 and 2000 tonnes, it should be noted that a large part of the German and Dutch waterway network can only be accessed by tankers of this size. On a regular basis, new, double hull tankers enter this market. Therefore, the utilisation rate remained stable for this category.

 

 

Comparison between needed and available fleet capacity in the liquid cargo market

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Needed tonnage
Less than 1000 tonnes 0,13 0,13 0,11 0,11 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09
1000 – 2000 tonnes 0,48 0,51 0,47 0,47 0,50 0,47 0,47 0,49 0,53 0,52
More than 2000 tonnes 1,04 1,15 1,08 1,07 1,21 1,11 1,12 1,20 1,30 1,27
TOTAL 1,64 1,79 1,66 1,65 1,82 1,68 1,68 1,78 1,93 1,88
Available tonnage
Less than 1000 tonnes 0,18 0,18 0,17 0,17 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11
1000-2000 tonnes 0,72 0,72 0,75 0,79 0,80 0,78 0,77 0,76 0,75 0,73
More than 2000 tonnes 1,42 1,44 1,63 1,93 2,04 2,09 2,15 2,22 2,23 2,24
TOTAL 2,32 2,34 2,55 2,89 3,00 3,02 3,06 3,11 3,09 3,07
Average utilisation rate 71% 76% 65% 57% 60% 56% 55% 57% 62% 61%

Source : Panteia

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