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SPRING 2018

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Turnover development in Europe

Quarterly data on turnover in IWT are at present only available for very few countries, due to statistical limitations. EUROSTAT presents data for the NACE sector H50 (water transport) which covers maritime and IWT transport together. Based on this dataset, it is possible to identify turnover in IWT only for countries with almost no activity in maritime shipping (Austria, Hungary). For the Netherlands, turnover data on a quarterly basis is provided by the national statistical office (CBS).

 

 

Turnover development in the Netherlands (2010=100) – Rhine country with mainly goods transport activity

Source : CBS

 

Turnover development in Hungary (2010=100) – Danube country with mainly goods transport activity

Source : Eurostat

 

Turnover development in Austria (2010=100) – Danube country with mainly passenger transport activity

Source : Statistik Austria

 

  • Inland shipping turnover in the Netherlands was 7 % higher in Q3 2017 than in Q3 2016.  This increase was by far less strong than the increase in transport prices, as total transport performance in Q3 2017 almost stagnated. The turnover evolution for other modes of transport in the Netherlands in Q3 2017 was: maritime shipping (+6.1 %), road transport (+5.5 %), rail transport (+4.1 %), total transport sector (+ 4.8 %).
  • Hungary is a middle Danube country where goods transport has a high share in IWT turnover (almost 3/4). The increase in turnover in Q3 2017 (+18 % compared to Q3 2016) is a parallel to the strong increase of transport demand in this quarter (+11.5 %), although stronger in magnitude.
  • Austria is an upper Danube country where passenger transport has a very high share in turnover (around 2/3). This explains the strong seasonal variations, a pattern typical for passenger shipping. Turnover in Q3 2017 was 3 % higher than one year earlier. One explanation is found in the increasing goods transport demand. Another role is played by the upward trend in passenger shipping, both in terms of the number of companies and in terms of their share in turnover.

 

 

Freight rates

 

Development of freight rates in the Netherlands (2015 average=100)

Source : CBS - Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek *Note: Average freight rate evolution for transports of dry cargo, liquid cargo and containers in the Netherlands

 

  • The average transport prices in IWT goods transport in the Netherlands remained at about the same level in Q3 2017 as in Q1 2017 and Q2 2017. While the reasons for the high level of freight rates in Q1 2017 can be seen in the low water levels, the explanation for the high freight rate level in Q2 2017 and Q3 2017 is more related to economic reasons.
  • Indeed, the second and third quarters of 2017 brought a recovery of freight traffic in the Netherlands, while the low water phenomenon was limited to a very short period in July. Therefore, the rather high freight rate level in Q2 2017 and Q3 2017 was mainly due to the high transport demand.

 

Development of freight rates* in the Danube region (January 2015=100)

Source : Danube Commission *Note: Freight rates based on transports of grain and chemical products from Middle Danube ports

 

 

  • On the Danube, freight rates in Q3 2017 for the transport of grain and fertilisers from the middle Danube region towards the ports on the Black Sea were below the level of Q2 2017. The fall in grain transports, due to the weaker harvest results, explains this evolution only partly. Another aspect to be taken into account is that freight rates are also determined by bunker fuel costs, and these costs were rising strongly on the Danube in Q3 2017 (by 7 % compared to Q2 2017)
  • Freight rates in tanker shipping on the Rhine were, in July 2017, influenced by temporary production restrictions of German refineries, which led to more imports via the Rhine and therefore higher freight rates. Lower water levels in July played an additional role. During August and September, freight rates fell back to a lower level, due to a shift from contango to backwardation on the future oil market, and therefore less transport demand.

 

 

Maximum loading degrees at Kaub/ Middle Rhine for vessels with a draught of 2.5 and 3 metres, compared with Freight Rates Index*

Source : CCNR and PJK International *Freight rates in tanker shipping on the Rhine

 

Maximum loading degrees at Kaub/ Middle Rhine for vessels with a draught of 2.5 and 3 metres, compared with Freight Rates Index*

Source : CCNR and PJK International * Freight rates in tanker shipping on the Rhine

Market Insight
SPRING 2018

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FALL 2018

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Market Insight
WINTER 2018-2019

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